A statewide drought is expected to develop and persist over the next three months.
That’s according to the current drought information statement issued by the National Weather Service.
“That’s what El Nino does, especially one that’s pretty significant, as this one is,” Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist for the NWS in Honolulu, said Thursday. “That’s probably what you will see every time we get an El Nino of this size.”
El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of equatorial surface waters in the Pacific Ocean.
Almost every official rain gauge on the Big Island recorded rainfall totals below the norm in September, and NWS is predicting the ongoing El Nino will likely result in below normal precipitation across the main Hawaiian Islands into spring 2024.
“Most of the Big Island is in some level of drought,” Kodama said. “Most of it is moderate, and that’s it’s first stage.”
Most of the Big Island is in D1, or moderate drought. D2, or severe drought, has developed along the leeward slopes of Maunakea and the lower slopes of the Ka‘u district from Punaluu to South Point.
Portions of Ka‘u have been particularly hard hit. According to the weather service’s monthly rainfall summary for September, Kapapala Ranch received about a third-of an inch of rain for the month, 8% of its norm. South Point recorded just 0.16 inches, 6% of its average September total.
“Ka‘u in September was very dry — Kapapala, Pahala and South Point were all, like, in a single-digit percent of average,” Kodama said.
Some windward areas also are feeling the pinch. Laupahoehoe reported 2.09 inches, less than a quarter of its average for September. Hilo International Airport tallied 5.67 inches, 65% of its September norm.
“In the summer, the way the drought plays out, you tend to get a normal amount of days with rain, but the amount per day is low,” Kodama said. “That was the case not just in August but in September, as well. In September, you had an above-average number of days with rain, but the amount of day of rain was below average, so you got only 65%.”
The winter is usually the wet season for most parts of Hawaii, although the leeward slopes of the Big Island and the Kona coffee belt have their wet season in the summer. Kodama predicts it’s going to be a tough winter for farmers and ranchers and a prosperous one for water-haulers.
Gordon Inouye, president of Puna Flower Power, an orchid nursery in Keaau, said he hasn’t yet had to call water-haulers, because the business built a new 20,000-gallon catchment tank and now can store 60,000 gallons of water, given sufficient rainfall.
“Right now, we’re down to about half-full, in terms of our tanks,” Inouye said. “If we don’t get some rain over the next week or so, we’re going to be hurting.”
Inouye said he and his partners “have been expecting a drier-than-normal period.”
“We’ve been trying to find funding for a deep well, but have been unsuccessful, thus far,” he said. “We just hope we don’t have to buy any water, because water gets very expensive.”
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.